Apologies for the late response.

It's an interesting thesis. Quantifying the risks associated with the collection and use of data in China is difficult.

The Chinese government appears to find it problematic that Tesla extracts data collected on Chinese customers to the US. It could also be a slur to ensure advantages to the increasing number of Chinese competitors.

But I think you're completely right that China, which is the golden egg for Tesla at the moment, has great risks.

Whether it would change the price targets of Tesla bulls such as Dan Ives (Wedbush), Adam Jonas (Morgan Stanley), or ARK Invest, I don't know. ARK in particular seems to put great emphasis on the autonomous driving part (Robo-taxis etc.), but I bet negative catalysts toward that wouldn't change their view. They'd probably come up with some other funky assumptions underlying their forward pricing.

Personally, I view the increased competition in key markets (hereunder also China) to be much more important, but I also never attributed much value to Tesla from autonomous driving. It's so far out in the future, and with so many competitors with larger budgets...

Regards, Asger

I’m an economist doing policy design and analysis. I write about the economy, taxation, innovation and growth, policy design, and financial markets.

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